区域尺度城市增长时空动态模型及其在京津唐都市圈应用(英文)-豆柴文库

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区域尺度城市增长时空动态模型及其在京津唐都市圈应用(英文)
RegionalScaleUrbanGrowthSpatiotemporalDynamicModelanditsApplicationintheBeijing-Tianjin-TangshanMetropolitanArea
Abstract
Therapidurbanizationprocessinrecentdecadeshasbroughtaboutsignificantchangesinthespatialstructureandtemporaldynamicsofurbanareas.Thisstudyproposesaspatiotemporaldynamicmodelofurbangrowthattheregionalscaletoexploretheunderlyingmechanismsgoverningthesechanges.ThemodelwasappliedtotheBeijing-Tianjin-TangshanMetropolitanAreainChinatoprovideinsightsintotheevolutionofurbanizationinthisregion.Theresultsrevealedthatthespatiotemporalpatternsofurbangrowthinthestudyareaweresignificantlyinfluencedbysocioeconomicfactorssuchaspopulationgrowth,industrialdevelopment,andtransportationinfrastructure.Themodelpredictedacontinualexpansionofurbanareasinthefuture,withthepotentialforconsolidationandspecializationofurbanfunctions.
Introduction
Urbanizationisaglobaltrend,butitisparticularlyprevalentinChina,wheretheurbanpopulationhasrapidlygrowninrecentdecades.Therapidexpansionofurbanareashasresultedinsignificantchangesinthespatialstructureandtemporaldynamicsofurbanareas.Thesechangeshaveimportantecological,social,andeconomicconsequencesfortheregionsandthepeoplelivinginthem.ThisstudyaimstodevelopaspatiotemporaldynamicmodelofurbangrowthattheregionalscaleandapplyittotheBeijing-Tianjin-TangshanMetropolitanAreainChina.
Methodology
Thespatiotemporaldynamicmodelofurbangrowthwasconstructedbasedonfourkeyfactors:populationgrowth,industrialdevelopment,transportationinfrastructure,andlandusepolicies.Thesefactorswereintegratedintoaregressionmodeltosimulatethespatiotemporaldynamicsofurbangrowthinthestudyarea.
Datawerecollectedfromvarioussources,includingsatelliteimagery,censusdata,landusemaps,andsocio-economicstatistics.Thestudyareawasdividedintogridsof1km²,andtheregressionmodelwasappliedtoeachgridtoestimatetheprobabilitiesofurbangrowthovertime.Themodelwasvalidatedusinghistoricaldataonurbangrowthfrom1995to2015.
Results
Theresultsshowedthatintheperiodfrom1995t