“以目标为中心”的情报分析方法在中印边境冲突预测中的应用研究-豆柴文库

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“以目标为中心”的情报分析方法在中印边境冲突预测中的应用研究
Abstract
TherecentborderconflictsbetweenChinaandIndiahavelefttheworldtowonderaboutthereasonsbehindtheclashes.Intelligenceanalystsplayacriticalroleinpredictingmilitaryconflictsandtakingpreemptivemeasuresagainstthem.Thisresearchpaperaimstoexploretheapplicationofthetarget-centricapproachinintelligenceanalysistopredictfutureconflictsbetweenChinaandIndia.Thispaperwillanalyzethehistoricalbackground,theterritorialdispute,andthemilitaryforcesofbothcountries.ThepaperwillalsoexaminetheprimarymotivationsofbothChinaandIndiaandhowtheycouldleadtofutureclashes.Byusingthetarget-centricapproach,thispaperaimstounderstandthepotentialtargetsofbothcountriesandthescopeoftheconflict.
Introduction
ChinaandIndiasharea3,488km-longborder,andformanyyearsnow,therehavebeenfrequentskirmishesintheregion.Therecentborderclashbetweenthetwocountrieshasledtothedeathsofseveralsoldiersandraisedconcernsabouttheescalationofthetensionbetweenthesetwosuperpowers.Intelligenceanalystsplayapivotalroleinpredictingmilitaryconflicts,andtheyuseseveralanalyticalmethodstoevaluatepotentialthreatsandconflicts.Thetarget-centricapproachisoneofthesemethodsthatcanbeemployedtoassessthedynamicsoftheconflictbetweenthetwocountries.Thisapproachfocusesontheactorsandtheirpotentialtargets,anditisaneffectivewayofunderstandingthemotivationsandobjectivesofbothsides.ThispaperaimstoanalyzetheconflictbetweenChinaandIndiaandillustrateshowwecanusethetarget-centricapproachtopredictfuturedevelopments.
Background
TheterritorialdisputebetweenChinaandIndiadatesbacktothe1960swhenChinaoccupiedthewesternterritoryofIndia,whichisnowknownasAksaiChin.Thisdisputehasledtoseveralfrontierclashesbetweenthetwocountriesovertheyears,withthemostrecentincidentoccurringonJune15,2020.TheLadakhregion,locatedintheHimalayas,hasseenthemostheightenedtensioninthepastfewyears.Bothcountrieshavebeeninvestinginborderinfrastructuredevelopment,leadingtotensionintheregion.IndiahasaccusedChinaofbuildingborderinfrastructuretoclaimIndianterritory,w