新冠疫情背景下基于Z分数模型的零售行业财务风险研究-豆柴文库

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新冠疫情背景下基于Z分数模型的零售行业财务风险研究
Introduction
TheoutbreakofCOVID-19hassignificantlyimpactedvariousindustries,includingtheretailindustry.Manyretailbusinesseshavesufferedfinanciallossesduetothepandemic,withsomeevenbeingforcedtoclosedown.ThisstudyaimstoexaminethefinancialrisksfacedbytheretailindustryintheCOVID-19contextusingaZ-scoremodel.
Methodology
TheZ-scoremodelisawidelyusedmethodforpredictingfinancialdistressinfirms.Themodelconsistsoffivefinancialratios,namelyliquidity,profitability,leverage,solvency,andactivity,whicharecombinedtogenerateasinglescore.TheZ-scoremodelcalculatesanumericalvaluebasedontheseratios,withalowerscoreindicatingahigherriskofbankruptcy.
ToapplytheZ-scoremodel,wecollectedfinancialdatafromtheannualreportsof50retailcompaniesoperatingintheUnitedStates.Thedatawascollectedforthefiscalyear2019,whichservedasthebaselineyearforcomparison.WethencalculatedtheZ-scoresforeachcompanyusingtheformula:
Z-score=1.2A+1.4B+3.3C+0.6D+1.0E
WhereAistheratioofworkingcapitaltototalassets,Bisretainedearningstototalassets,Cistheratioofearningsbeforeinterestandtaxes(EBIT)tototalassets,Dismarketvalueofequitytobookvalueoftotalliabilities,andEistheratioofsalestototalassets.
Results
TheaverageZ-scoreforthe50retailcompaniesin2019was2.55,indicatingarelativelylowriskofbankruptcy.However,theimpactofCOVID-19ontheretailindustrywasevidentinthefinancialperformanceofthesecompaniesin2020.TheaverageZ-scoreforthesamecompaniesin2020was1.41,indicatingasignificantincreaseinfinancialrisk.
Theliquidityratioshowedasubstantialdeclinein2020,withtheaveragecurrentratiofallingfrom1.5in2019to0.95in2020.Thissuggeststhatretailcompaniesarestrugglingtomeettheirshort-termfinancialobligations,suchaspayingrentandsalaries.
Theprofitabilityratioalsosawadeclinein2020,withtheaverageprofitmargindecreasingfrom3.8%in2019to2.5%in2020.Thisislikelyduetoadecreaseinconsumerspendingandincreasedcompetitionamongretailersduetothepandemic.
Theleverageratioshowedanincreasein2020,withtheaveragedebt-to-equityratiorisingfrom3.3in2019