麦肯锡中国移动总体战略e文版74页-豆柴文库

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CONFIDENTIALKEYMESSAGESKEYMESSAGES	*	RevenuesdonotequaltheproductofARPUassubscriberfiguresareprovidedforyearend,notaveragesubscribersduringayear.Detailedinformationonthetimingofnewsubscriptionsandchurnrequiredforthecalculationofaveragesubscribersduringagivenyearisnotavailable
**AllCAGRsarecalculatedontheannounceddata
Source:	DeutscheBank;JPMorgan;MIICHINA’SMOBILESUBSCRIBERBASEISGROWINGMORERAPIDLYTHANANYOTHERMAJORMARKET,COMPRISING15%OFWORLDTOTALIN2001CHINA’SMOBILEMARKETISPROJECTEDTOGROWSIGNIFICANTLYMOBILESUBSCRIBERPENETRATIONOFLESSTHAN7%IN2000,LEAVESSIGNIFICANTROOMFORGROWTHCHINA’SRICHERPROVINCESGENERALLYHAVEMORESUSCRIBERSANDAREGREATERPENETRATED……WHILETHEPOORWESTERNANDINTERIORPROVINCESHAVELESSSUBSCRIBERSANDARELESSPENETRATEDKEYMESSAGESCHINA’SMOBILEOPERATORLANDSCAPEHASEVOLVEDSIGNIFICANTLY,CULMINATINGINSECONDBREAKUPOFCHINATELECOM
	Source:	Literaturesearch;industryinterviewsOTHERPLAYERSUNLIKELYTOATTAINMOBILELICENSESEXISTINGANDPOTENTIALMOBILEOPERATORSHOLDBROADBUTDIFFERENTCOMPETITIVEPOSITIONINGSANDSERVICEOFFERINGSEACHEXISTING/POTENTIALMOBILEOPERATORHASSTRENGTHSANDWEAKNESSESMOSTOPERATORSHAVEEXISTINGPARTNERSHIPSWITHFOREIGNPLAYERSINMOBILETELECOMSERVICEMARKET,CHINAMOBILEWILLLIKELYREMAINTHEDOMINANTOPERATORINBOTHREVENUE……ANDSUBSCRIBER*SHARE		*02-05forecastarenetsubsafterinactiveandmulti-sim-cardreduction
**AcquiredbyCMHKfromparentinOct2000
	Source:	JPMorgan;Industryinterviews;McKinseyanalysisCHURNISALREADYSIGNIFICANTWITHBOTHOPERATORSANDWILLCONTINUETOINCREASEDRIVENBYINCREASINGCOMPETITIONWITHIMPACTGREATESTONCHINAMOBILEComments

Decreasingtrenddueto
Increasedcompetitionandlowertariffs
Increasedmixoflow-valueprepaidusers
Deepeningpenetrationwhichincreaseslow-valueusership
ChinaMobile'sARPUhigherdueto
HigherpricesthanChinaUnicom
Greaterconcentrationofhigh-endusersbecauseofbreadthofcoverageandmarketpresence	*	100%=75.9millionsubscribersin2001and111.9millionin2005
	**	100%=28.6millionsubscribersin2001and54.9millionin2005
	Source:	GoldmanSachs;MorganStanley;TeamanalysisNONETHELESS,BOTHOP